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April 23, 2015

Determining Option Strategies on NFLX

Compared to trading equities, there are so many more option strategies available to an option trader. But more importantly: Do you know why there are so many different types of options strategies? This is the real root of our discussion and why getting a proper options education can help a trader better understand all of those strategies and when and how to use them.

Different options strategies exist because each one serves a unique purpose for a unique market condition. For example, take bullish NFLX traders. Now that the stock has recently gapped up big after earnings and has broken through several resistance areas and is now trading around its all-time high, there are traders who continue to be extremely bullish on the stock. Some option traders want to get more bang for their buck and buy short-term out-of-the-money calls. This might not be the most prudent way to capture profits but that is a discussion for another time. Less bullish traders might buy at- or in-the-money calls. Traders bullish just to a point may buy a limited risk/limited reward bull call spread. If implied volatility is high (which it currently is not but it has been rising) and the trader is bullish just to a point, the trader might sell a bull put spread (credit spread), and so on.

The differences in options strategies, no matter how apparently minor, help traders exploit something slightly different each time. Traders should consider all the nuances that affect the profitability (or potential loss) of an option position and, in turn, structure a position that addresses each difference. Traders need to consider the following criteria:

  • Directional bias
  • Degree of bullishness or bearishness
  • Conviction
  • Time horizon
  • Risk/reward
  • Implied volatility
  • Bid-ask spreads
  • Commissions
  • And more

Carefully defining your outlook and intentions and selecting the best options strategies makes all the difference in a trader’s long-term success. Leaving money on the table with winners, or taking losses bigger than necessary can be unfortunate byproducts of selecting inappropriate options strategies. With summer coming soon and supposedly the slow markets, now is a great time to spend optimizing your options strategies over the next few weeks to build the habit!

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

February 12, 2015

Going for the Long Ball with OTM Call Options

It seems like almost every other week in my Group Coaching class, a student will ask me about buying deep out-of-the money (OTM) options. Many option traders especially those that are new initially buy deep out-of-the-money options because they are cheap and can offer a huge reward. Unfortunately many times, these “cheap” options are rarely a bargain. Don’t get me wrong, at first glance an OTM call that costs $0.25 may seem like a steal. Since spring training is fast approaching, we can use a baseball analogy and say that if the trade works out, it could turn into a real homerun; maybe even a grand slam. But if the call’s strike price is say $20 or $30 (depending on the stock price) above the market and the stock has never rallied that much before in the amount of time until expiration, the option will likely expire worthless or close to it.

Negative Factors

Many factors work against the success of a deep OTM call from profiting. The call’s delta (rate of change of an option relative to a change in the underlying) will typically be so small that even if the stock starts to rise, the call’s premium will not increase much. In addition, option traders will still have to overcome the bid-ask spread (the difference between the buy and sell price) which might be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.15 or even more for illiquid options.

Option traders that tend to buy the cheapest calls available are probably calls that have the shortest time left until expiration. If an OTM call option expires in less than thirty days, its time decay measured by theta (rate of change of an option given a unit change in time) will be often larger than the delta especially for higher priced and more volatile stocks. Any potential gains from the stock rising in price can be negated by the time decay. Plus each day the OTM call option premium will decrease if the stock drops, trades sideways or rallies just a tad.

Final Thoughts

A deep OTM call option can become profitable only if the stock unexpectedly jumps much higher. If the stock does rise sharply, an OTM call option can hit the proverbial homerun and post impressive gains. The question option traders need to ask themselves is how much are they willing to lose waiting for the stock to rise knowing that the odds are unlikely for it to happen in the first place? Trades like these have very low odds and may be better suited for the casino then the trading floor.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

June 18, 2014

AAPL Butterfly After the Split

There has been more talk than usual about Apple Inc. (AAPL) before and now just after the split. Several traders have asked me about what type of AAPL option trade they can use if they think AAPL will rise to around $100 in a few short weeks. Truth be told, there is more than one option strategy that can profit. But an option trader should consider a directional butterfly spread particularly if he or she has a particular time frame in mind as well. Depending on how the butterfly spread is structured, the option trader can structure a high risk/reward ratio for the spread. Let’s take a look at this option strategy.

The long butterfly spread involves selling two options at one strike and then purchasing options above and below equidistant from the sold strikes. This is usually implemented with all calls or all puts. The long options are considered to be the wings and the short options are the body of the butterfly. The option strategy objective is for the stock to be trading at the sold strikes at expiration. The option strategy benefits from time decay as the stock moves closer to the short options strike price at expiration. The short options expire worthless or have lost significant value and the lower strike call on a long call butterfly spread or higher strike put for a long put butterfly spread have intrinsic value.

As mentioned above, if an option trader thinks that AAPL will be trading around $100 in about three weeks, he can implement a long call butterfly spread with the sold strikes (body) right at $100. Put options could also be used but since the spread is being structured out-of-the-money (OTM), the bid/ask spreads of the options tend to be tighter versus in-the-money (ITM) options which would be the case with put options. The narrower the option trader makes the wings (long calls) the less the trade will cost but there will be less room to profit due to the breakevens. If the butterfly spread is designed with larger wings, the more it will cost but there will be a wider area between the breakevens.

At the time of this writing, AAPL is trading around $92. An option trader decides to buy a Jul-03 97/100/103 call butterfly for 0.15. The most the trader can lose is $0.15 if AAPL closes at or below $97 and at or above $103 at expiration. The breakevens on the trade are between $97.15 (97 + 0.15) and $102.85 (103 – 0.15). The maximum profit on the trade in the unlikely event AAPL closes exactly at $100 on expiration would be $2.85 (3 – 0.15). This gives this option strategy a 1 to 19 risk/reward ratio. Granted AAPL needs to move higher and be around $100 in three weeks but one could hardly argue about the risk/reward of the option strategy or the generous breakeven points of the spread.

This AAPL option trade may be a bit overwhelming for a new option trader to understand and there is more than one way to take a bite out of AAPL with a bullish bias. A directional call butterfly spread in this instance is just one way. A big advantage that the directional butterfly strategy may have over another option strategy is the high risk/reward ratio. The biggest disadvantage is the trader needs to be right about the time frame in which the stock will trading between the wings since maximum profit is earned as close to expiration as possible.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

June 12, 2014

Homeruns and OTM Call Options

This past week in Group Coaching, a student asked me about buying deep out-of-the money (OTM) options. Many option traders especially those that are new initially buy deep out-of-the-money options because they are cheap and can offer a huge reward. Unfortunately many times, these “cheap” options are rarely a bargain. Don’t get me wrong, at first glance an OTM call that costs $0.25 may seem like a steal. If it works out, it could turn into a real homerun as they say in baseball; maybe even a grand slam. But if the call’s strike price is say $20 or $30 (depending on the stock price) above the market and the stock has never rallied that much before in the amount of time until expiration, the option will likely expire worthless or close to it.

Negative Factors

Many factors work against the success of a deep OTM call from profiting. The call’s delta (rate of change of an option relative to a change in the underlying) will typically be so small that even if the stock starts to rise, the call’s premium will not increase much. In addition, option traders will still have to overcome the bid-ask spread (the difference between the buy and sell price) which might be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.15 or even more for illiquid options.

Option traders that tend to buy the cheapest calls available are probably calls that have the shortest time left until expiration. If an OTM call option expires in less than thirty days, its time decay measured by theta (rate of change of an option given a unit change in time) will be often larger than the delta especially for higher priced and more volatile stocks. Any potential gains from the stock rising in price can be negated by the time decay. Plus each day the OTM call option premium will decrease if the stock drops, trades sideways or rallies just a tad.

Final Thoughts

A deep OTM call option can become profitable only if the stock unexpectedly jumps much higher. If the stock does rise sharply, an OTM call option can hit the proverbial homerun and post impressive gains. The question option traders need to ask themselves is how much are they willing to lose waiting for the stock to rise knowing that the odds are unlikely for it to happen in the first place? Trades like these have very low odds and may be better suited for the casino then the trading floor.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring