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February 21, 2013

Expiration Week: Butterflies

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 2:25 pm

One of the major differences when learning to trade options as opposed to equity trading is the impact of time on the various trade vehicles.  Remember that quoted option premiums reflect the sum of both intrinsic (if any) and extrinsic (time) value.  Also remember that while very few things in trading are for certain, one certainty is that the time value of an option premium goes to zero at the closing bell on expiration Friday.

While this decay of time premium to a value of zero is reliable and inescapable in our world of option trading, it is important to recognize that the decay is not linear.  It is during the final weeks of the option cycle that decay of the extrinsic premium begins inexorably to race ever faster to oblivion.  In the vocabulary of the options trader, the rate of theta decay increases as expiration approaches. It is from this quickening of the pace that many examples of option trading vehicles gain their maximum profitability during this final week of their life.

Some of the most dramatic changes in behavior can be seen in the trading vehicle known as the butterfly. For those new to options, consideration of the butterfly represents the move from simple single legged strategy such as simply buying a put or a call to multi-legged strategies that include both buying and selling options in certain patterns.

To review briefly, a butterfly consists of a vertical debit spread and vertical credit spread sharing the central strike price constructed together in the same underlying in the same month.  It may be built using either puts or calls and its directional bias derives from strike selection rather than the particular type of option used for construction.  For a (long) butterfly, maximum profit is always achieved at expiration when the underlying closes at the short strike shared by the two vertical spreads.

The butterfly has the interesting functional characteristic that it responds sluggishly to price movement early in its life, for example in the first two weeks of a four week option cycle. However, as expiration approaches, the butterfly becomes increasingly sensitive to price movement as the time premium erodes and the beast becomes increasingly subject to delta as a result of increasing gamma. It is for this reason that many butterfly traders restrict their use to the more responsive part of the options cycle. For a butterfly, the greatest sensitivity to time (and, therefore, profit potential) is reaped in the final week of the life cycle of the butterfly, i.e. expiration week.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

January 31, 2013

Options and Algebra

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 12:44 pm

One of the greatest advantages of options trading is its extreme flexibility in both the initial construction of positions and in the ability to adjust a position to match the new outlook of the underlying.  The trader who limits his or her world to that of simply trading equities and ETF’s can only deal in terms of short or long. A change in an outlook often requires starting a new position or exiting the old one.  The options trader can usually accommodate the newly developed thesis much more fluidly, often with minor adjustments on the position in order to achieve the right fit with the new outlook.

One concept with which the trader needs to be familiar in order to construct the necessary adjustments is that of the synthetic relationships.  Most options traders neglect to familiarize themselves with the concept when learning to trade options. This concept arises from the fact that appropriately structured option positions are virtually indistinguishable in function from the corresponding long or short equity/ETF position.  One approach to remembering the relationships is to memorize all of the relationships.  I find remembering the mathematical formula and modifying as needed to be much more useful and easier.

For those who remember high school algebra, the fundamental equation expressing this relationship is S=C-P.  The variables are defined as S=stock, C=call, and P=put.  This equation states that stock is equivalent to a long call and a short put.

Using high school algebra to formulate this equation, the various equivalency relationships can easily be determined. Remember that we can maintain the validity of the equation by performing the same action to each of the two sides.  This fundamental algebraic adjustment allows us, for example, to derive the structure of a short stock position by multiplying each side by -1 and maintain the equality relationship.  In this case (S)*-1 =(C-P)*-1 or –S=P-C; short stock equals long put and short call.

Such synthetic positions are frequently used to establish positions or to modify existing positions either in whole or part.  You might have hated algebra when you were in school, but applying some of the formulas can help an options trader exponentially!

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

January 24, 2013

Naked Puts on AAPL Stock

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:30 am

The Strategy
If you want to learn to trade here’s a really useful option strategy that all traders should know. Let’s take a look at an option strategy that involves the selling of a put, often referred to as an uncovered put write or a naked put write. A naked put write is when a trader sells a put that is not part of a spread. This strategy is generally considered to be a bullish-to-neutral strategy.

The maximum profit is the premium received for the put. The maximum profit is achieved when the underlying stock is greater than or equal to the strike price of the sold put. Though this allows for a lot of room for error (The stock can be anywhere above the strike at expiration), note that the maximum loss is unlimited and occurs when the price of the underlying stock is less than the strike price of the sold put less the premium received. So, executing this trade in the right situation is essential. To calculate breakeven, subtract the premium received from the sold put’s strike price.

The Example
For our example we will use Apple (AAPL). Apple just recently announced earnings and the stock dropped over $50. For this example we will assume the stock is trading around $460 a share. A trader sells the March 435 put, which carries a bid price of $10.00 (rounded to make the math a bit easier). Should AAPL stock be trading above $435 a share at expiration, the March 435 contract will expire worthless and the trader will keep the premium collected. (Do not forget to take any commissions the trader may pay from the equation.) All is good, right? Well, what if the stock falls even more after earnings?

If  AAPL falls another $50 to $410 at expiration, the put would expire in-the-money and would have to be purchased back to avoid assignment. This could cost the trader a rather hefty sum. Assigning values, our investor collected $10 in premium. The 420 put expired with $25 in intrinsic value. The trader loses the $25, less the $10 premium collected results in a loss of $15, or $1,500 of actual cash.

Why Sell Naked Puts?
We have already discussed the profit potential of selling naked puts, but there is another reason to do so – owning the stock. Selling naked puts is a good way to purchase at a specific price by choosing a strike near said target price. Should the stock price drop below the put strike and the puts are assigned, the trader buys the stock at the strike price minus the option premium received. Again, should the put not reach the strike price, the premium is pocketed at expiration.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

November 16, 2012

There’s a Time for Everything: Thoughts on AAPL Option Strategies

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 3:28 pm

Do you know how many different types of options strategies there are? A lot: That’s how many! But that’s not really the important question. More importantly: Do you know why there are so many different types of options strategies? Now we have something to discuss and getting a proper options education can help a trader better understand all of those strategies and when and how to use them.

Different options strategies exist because each one serves a unique purpose for a unique market condition. For example, take bullish AAPL traders. Now that the stock has severely declined in price, there are traders who are extremely bullish on AAPL and want to get more bang for their buck and buy short-term out-of-the-money calls. Less bullish traders might buy at- or in-the-money calls. Traders bullish just to a point may buy a limited risk/limited reward bull call spread. If implied volatility is high and the trader is bullish just to a point, the trader might sell a bull put spread, and so on.

The differences in options strategies, no matter how apparently subtle, help traders exploit something slightly different each time. Traders should consider all the nuances that affect the profitability (or potential loss) of an option position and, in turn, structure a position that addresses each nuance. Traders need to consider the following criteria:

  • Directional bias
  • Degree of bullishness or bearishness
  • Conviction
  • Time horizon
  • Risk/reward
  • Implied volatility
  • Bid-ask spreads
  • Commissions
  • And more

Carefully selecting options strategies makes all the difference in a trader’s long-term success. Leaving money on the table with winners, or taking losses bigger than necessary can be unfortunate byproducts of selecting inappropriate options strategies. With the holidays approaching, now is a great time to spend optimizing your options strategies over the next few weeks to build the habit heading into the New Year!

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

November 8, 2012

Thoughts on AAPL Risk

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:16 am

Hurricane Sandy and the recent decline in Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock is a reminder of how “black swan” events can impact our lives in unforeseen and unforeseeable ways. Yogi Berra summed it up succinctly in his aphorism that “the future isn’t what it used to be.” It never is.

One helpful organizational concept of financial risk is to consider that risk comes in two categories. The usual type of risk is analyzed by the bell shaped curve of a Gaussian (log normal) distribution that most traders are familiar with. The other general category of risk is characterized by the unforeseen events that result in major alterations of the financial landscape. It is this category of risk to which Nassim Taleb has drawn attention in his books regarding the lack of predictability of consequential rare events.

How does this impact the world of the trader and the usefulness of options? The fact is that all funds invested in the market are totally at risk at all times and the comfort that stop losses may give can give a trader can be a false sense of security. From this concept, the ability to control stock with far less invested capital becomes inescapably attractive.

Such is one core function of options; control of stock with commitment of far less capital than outright purchase. To take a straightforward example, shares of AAPL which has taken center-stage on many traders and investors radars, currently trades around $560 after a major decline. The stock may now look attractive to buyers after its fall from around $700. To control 100 shares by outright stock purchase would require $56,000. A substantially delta equivalent position using deep in-the-money calls, the December 400 strike, could be purchased for approximately $16,200. As is characteristic of a deep in-the-money option, there is very little eroding time premium for which the trader is paying. In this example, there is substantially less risk buying the call option than purchasing the stock outright.

Should Armageddon arrive unannounced again and it might, which position is better: the total loss of the value of the stock position or the vaporization of the money paid for the option?

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring Inc.

October 4, 2012

Trading AAPL Option Strangles 101

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 2:25 pm

We have discussed the straddle options strategy in the past, a strategy that traders  can use when the market is volatile but direction is uncertain. Another play similar to the straddle is the option strangle. In a straddle, the investor is betting on both sides of a trade by purchasing options with the same strike price and the same expiration date, on the same underlying. A trader can create a similar trade, but with a lower price by trading a strangle instead. Rather than purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (as in the straddle), the investor purchases a put and a call at different strikes, still with the same expiration. By using a put and a call that are out-of-the-money, a trader pays a lower initial premium. However, this comes with a caveat – the stock will have to make a much larger move than it would if a straddle were employed. The investor is, arguably, taking a larger risk (because a bigger move is needed than with a straddle), but is paying a lower price. If this all sounds confusing to you, I would invite you to checkout the Options Education section on our website.

The Particulars
Like a straddle, a strangle has two breakeven points. To calculate these points simply add the net premium (call premium + put premium) to the strike price of the call (for upside breakeven) and subtract the net premium from the put’s strike (to calculate downside breakeven).  If at expiration, the stock has advanced or dropped past one of these breakevens, the profit potential of the strategy is unlimited (yes, unlimited). The position will take a 100% loss if the stock is trading between the put and call strikes upon expiration. Remember that the maximum loss an investor can take on a strangle is the net premium paid.

Example Trade
To create a strangle, a trader will purchase one out-of-the-money (OTM) call and one OTM put. We can use Apple (AAPL) as an example which at the time of this writing (October 2012) is trading at around $670. The trader would buy both an October 675 call and an October 665 put. For simplicity, we will assign a price of $12.50 for both – resulting in an initial investment of twenty-five bucks for our investor (which is the maximum potential loss).

Should the stock rally past $675 at expiration, the 665 put expires worthless and the $675 call expires in-the-money (ITM) resulting in the strangle trader collecting on the position. If, for example, the intrinsic value of the call at expiration is $29, the profit is $4 (intrinsic value less the premium paid).  The same holds true if the stock falls below $665 at expiration, it then is the put that is ITM and the call expires worthless. The danger is that the stock moves nowhere by the time option expiration occurs. In this case, both legs of the position expire worthless and the initial twenty dollars, or $2,500 of actual cash, is lost.

Notice that the maximum loss is the initial premium paid, setting a nice limit to potential losses. Potential profits on the strangle are unlimited which can be very rewarding.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

September 27, 2012

Stop Loss or Trailing Stop?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 8:23 am

Some may hear the terms trailing stop loss and stop loss order and wonder exactly what these are and how a stop loss can enhance a trading strategy. Well, fret no more – that is what we will discuss in this blog entry. To get more educational ideas like this, sign up for a free two-week trial of Market Taker Mentoring’s options newsletter. Let’s start with the basics, defining a stop loss order. Basically, a trader will tell the broker a certain price on a stock (or option) where the position will be closed; but it’s a little different than a typical closing order. For longs, the closing price is below the current market price and for shorts the stop loss closing order is above the current market. Let’s take a look.

Stop Loss Example
A trader could purchase a stock for $15.00 and set a stop-loss order at $13.50. This means that the position will be closed at the market price once the stock drops below $13.50, simple right? It is called a stop loss order because it rather simply stops the investor from taking any more losses. Many investors have a set percentage of a trade for a stop loss order. If a trader wants to use a stop loss order for an option, the bid and ask prices would be monitored and then the same decisions as were made in the stock example are made.

Trailing Stop Loss Example
A trader  chooses a lower target price to keep losses in check and tells the broker to sell the contract once this price is breached. There is another stop loss strategy, the trailing stop loss. A trailing stop loss is either a fixed percentage or a fixed nominal increment from the current market price. Once the market price moves away from the stop, the stop moves, or trails, the market. It remains in place, though, if the market moves towards it.

Once the trailing stop loss is triggered the stock is sold, just like the regular stop loss. The benefit of the trailing stop loss is that it is flexible. If you purchase an option for $10 and set a trailing stop of 50 cents, the sell target is $9.50. Of course, as the stock increases in value, the 50-cent trailing stop will do follow (the stock trades at $10.50, the trailing stop becomes $10.00).

A trailing stop loss, then, can be used very effectively in profit taking. And it may sometimes require an adjustment. Let’s revisit the $10 stock with a 50-cent stop loss. If the company reports blow-out earnings, driving the price sharply higher, it might be time to adjust the trailing stop loss. In this example, let’s say the stock jumped to $12.00. A nice profit, but there could be some more room to the upside. Maybe the trader will adjust that trailing stop a little tighter to, say, 25 cents. Doing so allows the trader to lock in a profit of at least 1.75 (12 minus 10 = 2, 2 minus 0.25 = 1.75).

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

August 2, 2012

Option Delta and Apple (AAPL)

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:56 am

Option Delta and Apple ( AAPL )
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) sure is making a lot of news lately. The company recently reported earnings and subsequently fell in price. Since the fall, the stock has once again moved higher. One may expect the AAPL stock to push higher (after this dip), but some may believe the rebound will be still short-lived. Perhaps a smart move is to purchase a short-term, out-of-the-money option on the equity – let’s look for an option with a delta greater than 20 on Apple and see how the option could play out.

Option Delta and the Trade
First, let’s define option delta before we go into the option play. Option delta is a ratio that compares a stock’s change in price to the corresponding price change in said stock’s option. For this example, we are going to use the Apple September 650 call that has about an option delta of 23 percent.

What does the 23 percent mean? Let’s convert the option delta into dollars to see. This percentage means that this particular Apple option will gain or lose value just like 23 percent of 100 shares of Apple as the price changes. Look at the definition this way if it is easier, for every $1 Apple advances; the call option will increase 23 cents attributable to delta. So, Apple is currently trading at around $605 (rounded for simplicity) and we have purchased the 650 call. We need the call to advance past $650 in order (which is not out of the question) for the option to be in-the-money, but can we benefit from a rally that falls short of $650?

The Benefit of Option Delta
Apple is a major momentum stock, just look at what happens after good news – more often than not the stock rallies. In fact, I don’t think it is a stretch to say that the stock often moves quite a bit. Look at 2009 when Apple dropped as low as the $78 region in late January then rallied to finish the year above $210. That is a major gain.

Playing the September 650 call affords a trader the chance to make money in the case that the stock rallies. If the stock hits $650, that means it has moved 45 points. Take the 45 points and multiply that by 23 cents (option delta of .23) and you have a move of $10.35 in the call (45 X 0.23).

Conclusion
By looking at the option delta, we were able to have clear expectations for option profit based on stock movement. Does this mean that playing the delta is a fool-proof to analyze an option? No. There are other important pricing factors that affect the value of an option, too. Time (theta), volatility (vega) and more also play an important role. Delta is just one of the greeks that can be taken into account when looking for the right option to purchase. Make sure to do your homework so you can enter the option game prepared to succeed.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

July 26, 2012

Risk: Reward is Not Static on AAPL

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:06 am

Several groups of option strategies have defined maximum rewards that are approached as a result of the passage of time, changes in implied volatility (IV), and/or movement or failure of movement in price of the underlying.  Examples of such strategies include naked option sales and vertical spreads.

As the positions “mature” by virtue of various combinations of changes or lack of change in these three primal forces, the initial risk:reward calculus often changes dramatically.  The successful trader with a proper options education is aware of these changes, because the risk to extract the last bit of potential profit is often dramatically out of proportion to the magnitude of the profit he seeks to capture.

Let us consider the hypothetical example of a trader who has elected to open a position as a naked put seller.  This trader has chosen to write out-of-the-money puts, the August $510 strike, on AAPL which currently trades at $570 in this example.  His risk in the trade is that he is obligated to buy AAPL at the strike price at any time between opening the trade and August expiration.  For taking the risk of writing these puts, his account receives a credit of $1 and margin is encumbered based on SEC rules.  The credit received when the trade is opened is the maximum amount of money that can or will be received as a result of the trade.

As August expiration approaches, the stock remains at the $570 level and the market price of the puts he has sold decreases as a result of time (theta) decay.  As the price of the puts decreases and the profits increase, the risk:reward increases.  As the price declines below the often used 20% re-evaluation benchmark of the initial credit received, the risk incurred to gain the remaining residual premium is potentially substantial and may no longer be appropriate given the reward.

The experienced options trader in such trades often finds the opportunities to deploy capital in other trades to be much more attractive than to remain in the existing position.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

April 12, 2012

There’s a Time for Everything: Thoughts on AAPL Option Strategies

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:04 am

Do you know how many different types of options strategies there are? A lot: That’s how many! But that’s not really the important question. More importantly: Do you know why there are so many different types of options strategies? Now we have something to discuss and getting a proper options education can help a trader better understand all of those strategies and when and how to use them.

Different options strategies exist because each one serves a unique purpose for a unique market condition. For example, take bullish AAPL traders. Traders who are extremely bullish on AAPL get more bang for their buck buying short-term out-of-the-money calls. Less bullish traders my buy at- or in-the-money calls. Traders bullish just to a point may buy a limited risk/limited reward bull call spread. If implied volatility is high and the trader is bullish just to a point, the trader might sell a bull put spread, and so on.

The differences in options strategies, no matter how apparently subtle, help traders exploit something slightly different each time. Traders should consider all the nuances that affect the profitability (or potential loss) of an option position and, in turn, structure a position that addresses each nuance. Traders need to consider the following criteria:

  • Directional bias
  • Degree of bullishness or bearishness
  • Conviction
  • Time horizon
  • Risk/reward
  • Implied volatility
  • Bid-ask spreads
  • Commissions
  • And more

Carefully selecting options strategies makes all the difference in a trader’s long-term success. Leaving money on the table with winners, or taking losses bigger than necessary can be unfortunate byproducts of selecting inappropriate options strategies. Be sure to spend time optimizing your options strategies over the next few weeks to build the habit.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

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