Testimonials

April 4, 2013

Historical and Implied Volatility

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 2:05 pm

Dan mentioned recently in a blog that VIX (CBOE Implied Volatility Index)  was hovering around a six year low. With the market seemingly on the edge lately due to global events like North Korea and Cyprus, it is important for option traders to understand one of the most important steps when learning to trade options;  analyzing implied volatility and historical volatility. This is the way option traders can gain edge in their trades. But analyzing implied volatility and historical volatility is often an overlooked process making some trades losers from the start.

Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility
Historical volatility (HV) is the volatility experienced by the underlying stock, stated in terms of annualized standard deviation as a percentage of the stock price. Historical volatility is helpful in comparing the volatility of a stock with another stock or to the stock itself over a period of time. For example, a stock that has a 20 historical volatility is less volatile than a stock with a 25 historical volatility. Additionally, a stock with a historical volatility of 35 now is more volatile than it was when its historical volatility was, say, 20.

In contrast to historical volatility, which looks at actual stock prices in the past, implied volatility (IV) looks forward. Implied volatility is often interpreted as the market’s expectation for the future volatility of a stock. Implied volatility can be derived from the price of an option. Specifically, implied volatility is the expected future volatility of the stock that is implied by the price of the stock’s options. For example, the market (collectively) expects a stock that has a 20implied volatility to be less volatile than a stock with a 30 implied volatility. The implied volatility of an asset can also be compared with what it was in the past. If a stock has an implied volatility of 40 compared with a 20 implied volatility, say, a month ago, the market now considers the stock to be more volatile.

Analyzing Volatility
Implied volatility and historical volatility is analyzed by using a volatility chart. A volatility chart tracks the implied volatility and historical volatility over time in graphical form. It is a helpful guide that makes it easy to compare implied volatility and historical volatility. But, often volatility charts are  misinterpreted by new or less experienced option traders.

Volatility chart practitioners need to perform three separate analyses. First, they need to compare current implied volatility with current historical volatility. This helps the trader understand how volatility is being priced into options in comparison with the stock’s volatility. If the two are disparate, an opportunity might exist to buy or sell volatility (i.e., options) at a “good” price. In general, if implied volatility is higher than historical volatility it gives some indication that option prices may be high. If implied volatility is below historical volatility, this may mean option prices are discounted.

But that is not where the story ends. Traders must also compare implied volatility now with implied volatility in the past. This helps traders understand whether implied volatility is high or low in relative terms. If implied volatility is higher than typical, it may be expensive, making it a good a sale; if it is below its normal level it may be a good buy.

Finally, traders need to complete their analysis by comparing historical volatility at this time with what historical volatility was in the recent past. The historical volatility chart can indicate whether current stock volatility is more or less than it typically is. If current historical volatility is higher than it was typically in the past, the stock is now more volatile than normal.

If current implied volatility doesn’t justify the higher-than-normal historical volatility, the trader can capitalize on the disparity known as the skew by buying options priced too cheaply.

Conversely, if historical volatility has fallen below what has been typical in the past, traders need to look at implied volatility to see if an opportunity to sell exists. If implied volatility is high compared with historical volatility, it could be a sell signal.

The Art and Science of Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility
Analyzing implied volatility and historical volatility on volatility charts is both an art and a science. The basics are shown here. But there are lots of ways implied volatility and historical volatility can interact. Each volatility scenario is different. Understanding both implied volatility and historical volatility combined with a little experience helps traders use volatility to their advantage and gain edge on each trade which is precisely what every trader needs!

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

March 14, 2013

Six-Year Low in the VIX? What’s It Mean to YOUR Options Trading?

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 10:38 am

The VIX, or CBOE’s Implied Volatility Index, hit a six-year low this week. What’s that mean to options trading? Lots!

Options trading is greatly affected by implied volatility. At its most basic level, when the VIX is low, it tends to mean lousy options trading.

Option traders are not incented to trade when the VIX is low. Traders generally don’t want to sell options when premiums are so low. There is no reward and still there is always the specter of the risk of an unexpected market shock. And, option traders don’t want to buy options either. Why? Because when the VIX is low, the VIX low is for a reason: Because market volatility is low. Why would traders want to buy options (and endure time decay) is the market isn’t moving?

And so, as always, the devil is in the details. Right now, there actually exists a somewhat atypical pattern in many stock options. Many stocks have their implied volatility trading decidedly below historical volatility levels. Though this volatility set up can be seen here and there at any given time, it is more common than usual. That means cheap volatility trades (i.e., underpriced options) are more abundant.

Stocks like CRM, C, GE, F, and even the almighty AAPL all have implied volatility below their historical volatility.

That means that even though overall stock volatility (as measured by historical volatility) is low, the options are priced at an even lower level. That means time decay is very cheap per the level of price action in these stocks. And, implied volatility in these stocks (and probably the VIX as well) is likely to rise to catch up to historical volatility levels—assuming the current price action continues as it is.

So, traders should be careful not to sell too many option spreads (i.e., credit spreads) at these fire-sale levels. Instead, traders should look to positive vega spreads (i.e., debit spreads), at least until implied volatility rises offering worthy premiums to option sellers.

Dan Passarelli

CEO

Market Taker Mentoring

January 3, 2013

The Influence of Option Prices

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:02 am

Perhaps the most easily understood of the options price influences is the price of the underlying. All stock traders are familiar with the impact of the underlying stock price alone on their trades. The technical and fundamental analyses of the underlying stock price action are well beyond the scope of this discussion, but  it is sufficient to say it is one of the three pricing factors and probably the most familiar to traders learning to trade.

The price influence, time, is easily understood; in part because it is the only one of the forces restricted to unidirectional movement. The main reason that time impacts option positions significantly is a result of the existence of time (extrinsic) premium. Depending on the risk profile of the option strategy established, the passage of time can impact the trade either negatively or positively.

The third price influence is perhaps the most important. It is without question the most neglected and overlooked component: implied volatility. Implied volatility taken together with time defines the magnitude of the extrinsic option premium. The value of implied volatility is generally inversely correlated to price of the underlying and represents the aggregate trader’s view of the future volatility of the underlying. Because implied volatility responds to the subjective view of future volatility, values can ebb and flow as a result of upcoming events expected to impact price (e.g. earnings, FDA decisions, etc.).

New traders beginning to become familiar with the world of options trading should spend a fair amount of time learning the impact of each of these options pricing influences. The options markets can be ruthlessly unforgiving to those who choose to ignore them.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

November 16, 2012

There’s a Time for Everything: Thoughts on AAPL Option Strategies

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 3:28 pm

Do you know how many different types of options strategies there are? A lot: That’s how many! But that’s not really the important question. More importantly: Do you know why there are so many different types of options strategies? Now we have something to discuss and getting a proper options education can help a trader better understand all of those strategies and when and how to use them.

Different options strategies exist because each one serves a unique purpose for a unique market condition. For example, take bullish AAPL traders. Now that the stock has severely declined in price, there are traders who are extremely bullish on AAPL and want to get more bang for their buck and buy short-term out-of-the-money calls. Less bullish traders might buy at- or in-the-money calls. Traders bullish just to a point may buy a limited risk/limited reward bull call spread. If implied volatility is high and the trader is bullish just to a point, the trader might sell a bull put spread, and so on.

The differences in options strategies, no matter how apparently subtle, help traders exploit something slightly different each time. Traders should consider all the nuances that affect the profitability (or potential loss) of an option position and, in turn, structure a position that addresses each nuance. Traders need to consider the following criteria:

  • Directional bias
  • Degree of bullishness or bearishness
  • Conviction
  • Time horizon
  • Risk/reward
  • Implied volatility
  • Bid-ask spreads
  • Commissions
  • And more

Carefully selecting options strategies makes all the difference in a trader’s long-term success. Leaving money on the table with winners, or taking losses bigger than necessary can be unfortunate byproducts of selecting inappropriate options strategies. With the holidays approaching, now is a great time to spend optimizing your options strategies over the next few weeks to build the habit heading into the New Year!

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

August 16, 2012

Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 1:29 pm

One of the most important steps in when learning to trade options is to analyze implied volatility and historical volatility. This is the way option traders can gain edge in their trades. But analyzing implied volatility and historical volatility is often an overlooked step making some trades losers from the get-go.

Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility
Historical volatility (HV) is the volatility experienced by the underlying stock, stated in terms of annualized standard deviation as a percentage of the stock price. Historical volatility is helpful in comparing the volatility of a stock with another stock or to the stock itself over a period of time. For example, a stock that has a 15 historical volatility is less volatile than a stock with a 25 historical volatility. Additionally, a stock with a historical volatility of 35 now is more volatile than it was when its historical volatility was, say, 20.

In contrast to historical volatility, which looks at actual asset prices in the past, implied volatility (IV) looks ahead. Implied volatility is often interpreted as the market’s expectation for the future volatility of a stock. Implied volatility can be derived from the price of an option. Specifically, implied volatility is the expected future volatility of the stock that is implied by the price of the stock’s options. For example, the market (collectively) expects a stock that has a 15 implied volatility to be less volatile than a stock with a 30 implied volatility. The implied volatility of an asset can also be compared with what it was in the past. If a stock has an implied volatility of 40 compared with a 20 implied volatility, say, a month ago, the market now considers the stock to be more volatile.

Analyzing Volatility
Implied volatility and historical volatility is studied using a volatility chart. A volatility chart tracks the implied volatility and historical volatility over time in graphical form. It is a helpful visual aide that makes it easy to compare implied volatility and historical volatility. But, often volatility charts are  misinterpreted by novice traders.

Volatility chart practitioners need to perform three separate analyses. First, they need to compare current implied volatility with current historical volatility. This helps the trader understand how volatility is being priced into options in comparison with the stock’s volatility. If the two are disparate, an opportunity might exist to buy or sell volatility (i.e., options) at a “good” price. In general, if implied volatility is higher than historical volatility it gives some indication that option prices may be high. If implied volatility is below historical volatility, this may mean option prices are discounted.

But that is not the end of the story. Traders must also compare implied volatility now with implied volatility in the past. This helps traders understand whether implied volatility is high or low in relative terms. If implied volatility is higher than typical, it may be expensive, making it a good a sale; if it is below its normal level it may be a good buy.

Lastly, traders need to complete their analysis by comparing historical volatility at this time with what historical volatility was in the recent past. The historical volatility chart can indicate whether current stock volatility is more or less than it typically is. If current historical volatility is higher than it was typically in the past, the stock is now more volatile than normal.

If current implied volatility doesn’t justify the higher-than-normal historical volatility, the trader can capitalize on the disparity by buying options priced too cheaply.

Conversely, if historical volatility has fallen below what has been typical in the past, traders need to look at implied volatility to see if an opportunity to sell exists. If implied volatility is high compared with historical volatility, it could be a sell signal.

The Art and Science of Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility
Analyzing implied volatility and historical volatility on volatility charts is both an art and a science. The basics are shown here. But there are lots of ways implied volatility and historical volatility can interact. Each volatility scenario is unique. Understanding both implied volatility and historical volatility combined with a little experience helps traders use volatility to their advantage and gain edge on each trade.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

July 26, 2012

Risk: Reward is Not Static on AAPL

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:06 am

Several groups of option strategies have defined maximum rewards that are approached as a result of the passage of time, changes in implied volatility (IV), and/or movement or failure of movement in price of the underlying.  Examples of such strategies include naked option sales and vertical spreads.

As the positions “mature” by virtue of various combinations of changes or lack of change in these three primal forces, the initial risk:reward calculus often changes dramatically.  The successful trader with a proper options education is aware of these changes, because the risk to extract the last bit of potential profit is often dramatically out of proportion to the magnitude of the profit he seeks to capture.

Let us consider the hypothetical example of a trader who has elected to open a position as a naked put seller.  This trader has chosen to write out-of-the-money puts, the August $510 strike, on AAPL which currently trades at $570 in this example.  His risk in the trade is that he is obligated to buy AAPL at the strike price at any time between opening the trade and August expiration.  For taking the risk of writing these puts, his account receives a credit of $1 and margin is encumbered based on SEC rules.  The credit received when the trade is opened is the maximum amount of money that can or will be received as a result of the trade.

As August expiration approaches, the stock remains at the $570 level and the market price of the puts he has sold decreases as a result of time (theta) decay.  As the price of the puts decreases and the profits increase, the risk:reward increases.  As the price declines below the often used 20% re-evaluation benchmark of the initial credit received, the risk incurred to gain the remaining residual premium is potentially substantial and may no longer be appropriate given the reward.

The experienced options trader in such trades often finds the opportunities to deploy capital in other trades to be much more attractive than to remain in the existing position.

John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

June 10, 2012

Back to Basics: Part II

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 10:53 am

Perhaps the most easily understood of the options price influences is the price of the underlying. All stock traders are conversant with the impact of the underlying stock price alone on their trades. The technical and fundamental analyses of the underlying stock price action are well beyond the scope of this discussion, but suffice it to say it is one of the three pricing factors and probably the most familiar to traders learning to trade.

The price influence, time, is easily understood; in part because it is the only one of the forces restricted to unidirectional movement. The core reason that time impacts option positions significantly is a result of the existence of time (extrinsic) premium. Depending on the risk profile of the option strategy established, the passage of time can impact the trade either negatively or positively.

The third price influence is perhaps the most important. It is without question the most neglected and overlooked component: implied volatility. Implied volatility taken together with time defines the magnitude of the extrinsic option premium. The value of implied volatility is generally inversely correlated to price of the underlying and represents the aggregate trader’s view of the future volatility of the underlying. Because implied volatility responds to the subjective view of future volatility, values can wax and wane as a result of upcoming events expected to impact price (e.g. earnings, FDA decisions, etc.).

New traders beginning to become familiar with the world of options trading should direct their attention to understanding the impact of each of these options pricing influences. The options markets are ruthlessly unforgiving to those who choose to ignore the impact of the valuation metrics that underpin daily life in their world.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

April 19, 2012

Maximizing Fade Plays With AAPL and Others

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:55 am

Do you feel like you’ve seen this movie before? Trouble in the Europe especially Spain. People in the streets; panic in the market. Is this recent wave of trouble going to last forever? Not likely. Perhaps there is an opportunity to fade this fall. But how should an option trader play the fade to maximize chances of success and maximize option-trading returns? Trade ideas like this are discussed weekly in the MTE newsletter.

The obvious starting point for a trader to fade this fall is to take a positive-delta position. This is fancy options speak for a bullish trade. There are lots of different ways to take a bullish stance given all the various types of option-trading strategies out there. So, the question really is: Which is best?

There are a few major considerations here. First, traders must strive to maximize reward by minimizing risk. In order to do so, option traders must define their expectations. Am I looking for an extreme turn around? A mild retracement? A dead-cat bounce? The more a strategy can be tailored to expectations, the more risk can be controlled and reward can be maximized.

Next traders need to consider implied volatility. This is where option traders can get an edge in their options positions. If implied volatility is high (overpriced), option traders should consider option-selling strategies. If implied volatility is low (underpriced), option traders should consider option-buying strategies.

In the current market scenario we have a situation where if the turmoil in the Europe and Spain subsides, the market should rally somewhat, but it’s not likely to go to the moon. Further, with the levels and implied volatility of individual stocks at inflated levels, it’s easy to find overpriced options. Any clever fader trader should be looking for put credit spreads to sell. Put credit spreads have positive delta and take a short position on implied volatility. Great candidates for this sort of play are AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, et. al. Traders are best off staying away from bank stocks and precious metals that might be adversely affected by European instability.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

April 12, 2012

There’s a Time for Everything: Thoughts on AAPL Option Strategies

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 11:04 am

Do you know how many different types of options strategies there are? A lot: That’s how many! But that’s not really the important question. More importantly: Do you know why there are so many different types of options strategies? Now we have something to discuss and getting a proper options education can help a trader better understand all of those strategies and when and how to use them.

Different options strategies exist because each one serves a unique purpose for a unique market condition. For example, take bullish AAPL traders. Traders who are extremely bullish on AAPL get more bang for their buck buying short-term out-of-the-money calls. Less bullish traders my buy at- or in-the-money calls. Traders bullish just to a point may buy a limited risk/limited reward bull call spread. If implied volatility is high and the trader is bullish just to a point, the trader might sell a bull put spread, and so on.

The differences in options strategies, no matter how apparently subtle, help traders exploit something slightly different each time. Traders should consider all the nuances that affect the profitability (or potential loss) of an option position and, in turn, structure a position that addresses each nuance. Traders need to consider the following criteria:

  • Directional bias
  • Degree of bullishness or bearishness
  • Conviction
  • Time horizon
  • Risk/reward
  • Implied volatility
  • Bid-ask spreads
  • Commissions
  • And more

Carefully selecting options strategies makes all the difference in a trader’s long-term success. Leaving money on the table with winners, or taking losses bigger than necessary can be unfortunate byproducts of selecting inappropriate options strategies. Be sure to spend time optimizing your options strategies over the next few weeks to build the habit.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring

November 3, 2011

Juicing Volatility in Apple (AAPL)

Filed under: Options Education — Tags: , , , , , , — Dan Passarelli @ 10:27 am

Over half of 2011 has been characterized by a low implied volatility (IV) environment in virtually all underlying securities.  This milieu ended suddenly and abruptly on the recent sell-off that started towards the end of July and IV generally remains significantly elevated above its recent nadir due mostly to the European debt and banking crisis.

An example of the recent rise in IV can be seen in Apple ( AAPL ).  This underlying spent most of 2011 with options trading at IV’s of 30 percent or below.  Since August, the options have begun trading in the range of an IV of 30 percent and higher–even as high as 52 percent. Since its peak in October, IV has steadily declined to its current level of 32 percent at the time of this writing.

In October at the height of IV, traders need to be on guard and conscious of the fact that volatility could decline and possibly their long option premiums.  It is important to recognize that positions characterized by being long volatility (positive vega trades), especially long calls, will likely be negatively impacted by increasing prices since IV is generally inversely related to price.

Option strategists wanting to take a bullish position in AAPL may want to consider trade structures which offset much, if not all of the impact of decreasing IV.  In optionspeak, this can be described as reducing the vega of the position. Such strategies could include buying a debit call spread as opposed to a single-legged long call position. This technique is referred to as volatility hedging. More on this in future blog posts.

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