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April 19, 2012

Maximizing Fade Plays With AAPL and Others

Do you feel like you’ve seen this movie before? Trouble in the Europe especially Spain. People in the streets; panic in the market. Is this recent wave of trouble going to last forever? Not likely. Perhaps there is an opportunity to fade this fall. But how should an option trader play the fade to maximize chances of success and maximize option-trading returns? Trade ideas like this are discussed weekly in the MTE newsletter.

The obvious starting point for a trader to fade this fall is to take a positive-delta position. This is fancy options speak for a bullish trade. There are lots of different ways to take a bullish stance given all the various types of option-trading strategies out there. So, the question really is: Which is best?

There are a few major considerations here. First, traders must strive to maximize reward by minimizing risk. In order to do so, option traders must define their expectations. Am I looking for an extreme turn around? A mild retracement? A dead-cat bounce? The more a strategy can be tailored to expectations, the more risk can be controlled and reward can be maximized.

Next traders need to consider implied volatility. This is where option traders can get an edge in their options positions. If implied volatility is high (overpriced), option traders should consider option-selling strategies. If implied volatility is low (underpriced), option traders should consider option-buying strategies.

In the current market scenario we have a situation where if the turmoil in the Europe and Spain subsides, the market should rally somewhat, but it’s not likely to go to the moon. Further, with the levels and implied volatility of individual stocks at inflated levels, it’s easy to find overpriced options. Any clever fader trader should be looking for put credit spreads to sell. Put credit spreads have positive delta and take a short position on implied volatility. Great candidates for this sort of play are AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, et. al. Traders are best off staying away from bank stocks and precious metals that might be adversely affected by European instability.

Edited by John Kmiecik

Senior Options Instructor

Market Taker Mentoring